In the Issue

• The Weakest of Nations Pose the Greatest Threat
• Nuclear Nonproliferation and the Changing Global Order
• Spring 2009 Courier Now Available
• Russia, US Spar Over the Merchant of Death
• Global Water Demand, Global Supply

Features

The Weakest of Nations Pose the Greatest Threat. It's time that American leaders understand one fundamental truth: The world's weakest nations pose the greatest global security threats, not the world's strongest. Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair recently testified to Congress that the number one threat to America is no longer terrorism but rather the economic crisis, which is leading to unrest, violence, and instability in a number of countries. US foreign policy and security strategy must undergo serious changes to reflect this reality, argues Stanley Foundation senior fellow Michael Kraig in a recent op-ed in the Star Tribune (Minneapolis).

Nuclear Nonproliferation and the Changing Global Order. Across politics, economics, culture, military strength, and more, a new group of countries has growing influence over the future of the world. And a number of issues vital to US and global security are rapidly evolving due to a changing global order. Nuclear nonproliferation is one of four cross-cutting issues the Stanley Foundation sees shaping the global scene. Learn more about the role nuclear proliferation is playing in international affairs and the challenges it poses for the changing global order. This article is part of a series related to the Stanley Foundation effort "Rising Powers: The New Global Reality."

Spring 2009 Courier Now Available. In this issue we examine China's rise with James Fallows and take an in-depth look at China's Uighur Muslims. Shashi Tharoor helps us explore India's awakening and "India Rising," the latest radio documentary from the Stanley Foundation, is previewed. Also, senior fellow Michael Kraig explains why the US must work with the world's rising powers. Read the full issue in HTML or PDF. Courier is now available by e-mail. Sign up today.

Beyond the Headlines

Russia, US Spar Over the Merchant of Death. Viktor Bout, a Russian businessman thought to be the world's most notorious arms dealer who fueled conflicts around the globe, is awaiting extradition to the US after undercover agents from the Drug Enforcement Agency lured him to Thailand. Bout, made famous in the bestselling book Merchant of Death and the 2005 Nicholas Cage film The Lord of War, is claiming innocence on his personal Web site and hates how the book and film portrayed him. The book's coauthor, Douglas Farah, says Bout armed fighters in Liberia, Zaire, and Angola, as well as the Taliban, the FARC in Columbia, and Hezbollah. And he often openly supplied arms to both sides in a conflict at the same time according to Farah. Now, the US and Russia are in an extradition fight to convince the Thai authorities to release Bout to their respective countries. The US, which also used Bout to fly supply missions into Iraq, claims to have a solid legal case against the businessman. Russia, on the other hand, wants its former Soviet air force officer back. Experts say Bout has been useful to Russia's intelligence agencies, and Russia does not want him going on trial in the US.

Global Water Demand, Global Supply. As prices for some natural resources are tumbling in the global economic downturn, demand for one is at an all-time high. The world's supply of fresh water is dwindling, especially in areas of sub-Saharan Africa and southern Asia. The 2025 report, released by the National Intelligence Council in December 2008, predicted that water scarcity could be one of the major drivers of conflict in the 21st century. Not only could transborder water sources trigger interstate conflict, the drying up of agricultural land in much of the developing world could cause regime-threatening instability within already fragile states. As arid agricultural land becomes useless, millions of unemployed workers will flock to overburdened cities in search of work. This rapid urbanization could become a major source of civil unrest. Water, something many take for granted, might soon become a commodity traded like oil or natural gas.

Water scarcity has been on the agenda at recent global forums. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said, "The securing of safe water resources and sanitation is one of the most daunting challenges we face today." The 2009 World Economic Forum in Davos focused on water's role in global economic security. A report generated from this summit warns, "We simply cannot manage water in the future in the same way we have in the past or the economic web will collapse." Many feel this issue can only be curbed via multilateral efforts involving governments, the private sector, and individuals. Several nonprofit organizations have spearheaded water-related public education initiatives to engage individuals in the issue. The UK-based Water Aid has a Global Awareness layer that allows visitors to explore the water crisis via Google Earth, an interactive mapping system. "This is not an issue of rich or poor, North or South," Ban warns, "All regions are experiencing the problem of water stress."