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Seeking a secure peace with freedom and justice, built on world citizenship and effective global governance.
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United Nations and Global Institutions 2007
The UN and Iraq: Moving Forward? (78K) The prospect of the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi state has given sudden impetus to proposals for UN peace-brokering. The Bush administration has endorsed such a role, and the United Nations’ leadership is eager to comply. The organization’s impartial status gives it a unique advantage as convener and conflict mediator and, despite past marginalization of the UN role, Washington may now see the wisdom of deeper UN engagement. But what about the Iraqis? Although the chances of success are very low, no other diplomatic, political, or military process offers a greater likelihood of success. The United Nations should thus accept the role being thrust upon it, but only if the United States, key neighbors, and the Iraqis commit themselves to an impartial process that gives wider latitude to the United Nations as a mediator and arbiter between groups. 2006
United Nations Reform in Context (159K) The reforms proposed at the United Nations' 60th anniversary summit pointed the way forward for stronger action on global issues. This brief examines the challenges to reform and the opportunities to build a more secure world. US and Global Security 2008
Implementation: A New Approach to Multinational Coordination in Afghanistan (105K) Afghanistan is faltering as the Taliban continues an insurgency and the government of President Hamid Karzai struggles to deliver services. Around the world there are calls for new efforts at policy coordination among the donor countries who are aiding Afghanistan. However, former US Ambassador to Afghanistan Ronald Neumann writes that there should be less emphasis on policy coordination and more on implementation in the delivery of services to the Afghan people. In this brief he shows how greater emphasis on implementing existing strategy will produce better results. Further, he extracts lessons from the Afghanistan experience that could apply elsewhere.
Oil and Security (107K) This brief examines the current role of oil in US defense strategy, US national security strategy, and overall domestic and global economic activity. Using analysis of both the global and domestic economy over the past several decades, I show that the time has already passed when oil was strategically important enough to require individual industrialized nations to be prepared to intervene militarily in oil-producing regions. The idea that high oil prices are a strategic problem is a myth. Nevertheless, there is a deep-seated perception that oil-producing regions retain a special strategic importance, with strong effects on US defense planning and strategy. The questions addressed here are how US military, political, and economic strategy can be reconfigured when the strategic role of oil becomes better understood. The high costs of occupation of Iraq illustrate why US intervention in Mideast conflicts is not a useful substitute for a sensible energy policy. 2007
Restructuring America's Ground Forces: Better, Not Bigger (115K) The core defense debate of our time is how to make the US military more effective at irregular warfare (IW) and stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations in weak or failing states while still retaining some aspect of its strategic capabilities for major power warfare. Given the current global security system and likely future American strategy, the configuration that provides the best balance is one with ground forces about the size of today's, with the Marines and the Army organized around a geographic division of labor, but with enough cross-training that each service could, in an emergency, operate outside its normal region. While the ground forces must retain the capability for large-scale conventional combat, they clearly should focus most of their efforts on the requirements of IW/SSTR. This may not be the force we would prefer to have in 2020, but it is the most realistic one for the coming decade.
The Politics of National Security Budgets (126K) Given the range of international challenges that the United States confronts in the 21st century—extreme poverty; failing states; religious and ethnic conflicts; booming traffic in drugs, people, and weapons, all contributing to terrorism and proliferation—the need for a robust toolkit is critical. None of today’s challenges can be handled by the military alone; they demand an integrated use of diplomacy, assistance, and military capabilities. But these nonmilitary instruments are budgeted at a fraction of the spending levels allocated to the Defense Department. Any effort to boost international affairs budgets by more than incremental margins will run into structural obstacles. This brief, written by former senior White House budget official Gordon Adams, examines several built-in advantages—political, bureaucratic, administrative, congressional—that the military enjoys in the competition for resources. 2006
Coercive Diplomacy: Scope and Limits in the Contemporary World (223K) Bruce W. Jentleson reviews coercive diplomacy's track record and looks at how the United States used it to deal with Libya. Jentleson also presents policy recommendations that might be applied to current cases such as Iran and North Korea.
Failing States and US Strategy (143K) The issue of failing states is one of the principal challenges facing the United States. Anatol Lieven offers policy recommendations that reflect the tenets of "developmental realism" and advocates specific criteria for future international interventions.
America's Uncomfortable Relationship With Nationalism (128K) Is there such a thing as American nationalism or is it simply "patriotism"? Why do Americans view "nationalism" in such a negative light? Graham Fuller analyzes Americans' problem with nationalism, and why it is such a dangerous topic to ignore.
A Critique of the Bush Administration's National Security Strategy (108K) The Bush administration still has not produced an achievable national security strategy with a realistic chance of gaining support among Americans on a bipartisan basis. This brief examines the particular failings of the 2006 strategy document.
Beyond Preemption and Preventive War: Increasing US Budget Emphasis on Conflict Prevention (159K) The United States has vast but limited resources for assuring national security. This brief recommends a shift in funding toward nonmilitary forms of leadership in the world as well as a new balance between offensive, defensive, and preventive military tools. US and Middle East Security 2008
The Rise and Impact of Iran's Neocons (106K) Iran is a country in which factional politics continue to reign. Its complex elite structure is divided between three distinct political camps: conservative, reformist, and neoconservative. However, these groupings are not just elite-based: Ahmadinejad’s victory in 2005 demonstrated that Iran remains a deeply polarized society some quarter of a century after the victory of the revolution, with a significant part of the civilian populace supporting the slogans of the neoconservatives regarding the redistribution of wealth, elimination of poverty, rooting out of corruption, and protecting the Islamic nature of the state. This brief examines the practical realities of the rise of Iranian “neocons” under President Ahmadinejad; the domestic and foreign effects of this rise; and future likely social, economic, and foreign policy trends. The brief concludes with a strong argument for balanced, long-term US engagement of Iran on its enduring geopolitical interests, the latter of which are shared between factions.
Arab Media and US Policy: A Public Diplomacy Reset (118K) Numerous polls have underscored that the reputation of the United States in the Middle East has steadily deteriorated. This persistently negative image poses a formidable challenge to the ability of the United States to engage the Arab region, casting a cloud of suspicion over US political, economic, and cultural initiatives. To remedy this situation, US policymakers should create a real operational and rhetorical alternative to the “global war on terror” as a framework for global engagement, acquire expert knowledge about the Arab media environment, pay more attention to how economic governance issues affect perceptions of the United States, and consider the pitfalls of the misunderstood “branding” label. Above all, an understanding should emerge that the US reputation crisis cannot be resolved by communication alone, but ought to rest on smarter policies. A revised grand strategy should rest on a new multilateralism based on engagement with multiple state and nonstate actors alike. 2007
The UN and Iraq: Moving Forward? (78K) The prospect of the catastrophic collapse of the Iraqi state has given sudden impetus to proposals for UN peace-brokering. The Bush administration has endorsed such a role, and the United Nations’ leadership is eager to comply. The organization’s impartial status gives it a unique advantage as convener and conflict mediator and, despite past marginalization of the UN role, Washington may now see the wisdom of deeper UN engagement. But what about the Iraqis? Although the chances of success are very low, no other diplomatic, political, or military process offers a greater likelihood of success. The United Nations should thus accept the role being thrust upon it, but only if the United States, key neighbors, and the Iraqis commit themselves to an impartial process that gives wider latitude to the United Nations as a mediator and arbiter between groups.
The High Road to Damascus: Engage Syria's Private Sector (87K) Due to a variety of economic and political forces, the Syrian state is releasing controls on the Syrian economy. This opens a new arena for American influence in Syria. For the first time in more than 40 years, through its business sector, the United States can affect the lives of everyday Syrians by engaging these new forces and capitalizing on the entrepreneurial qualities inherent in Syrian culture. A new policy analysis brief from the Stanley Foundation offers how the United States may begin to engage Syria by emphasizing private sector development as an area of common interest. To do so, the United States needs to revisit certain policies that have had the ultimate effect of turning Syria toward other suppliers and investors, including the Islamic Republic of Iran. 2006
Stanley Foundation Analysis of PIPA Poll on Iraqi Attitudes (28K) What should the US and the world do about Iraq? A January poll asked Iraqis their opinions on this and other issues. Among the conclusions: Iraqis are open to outside help, provided it unites rather than divides.
Forging a New Security Order for the Persian Gulf (150K) Past approaches to Persian Gulf security have failed. New approaches and policies must be considered and given equal weight as the status quo. This brief lays out the parameters for more effective multilateral security policies within the region. 2005
Realistic Solutions for Resolving the Iranian Nuclear Crisis (81K) US security goals and global nonproliferation goals will be impossible to fulfill if the interests, fears, and ambitions of Iran are not considered in US decision making. This brief examines US and Iranian perspectives and suggests policy options. US and Asian Security 2008
A Security and Peace Mechanism for Northeast Asia: The Economic Dimension (217K) This brief explores the economic dimension of multilateral security cooperation in Northeast Asia, including a discussion of the purported security benefits of economic engagement with North Korea. The brief raises some cautionary questions about the scope for multilateral economic cooperation in Northeast Asia before outlining how economic cooperation can complement longer-run security and economic objectives on the peninsula, including economic reform in North Korea. A primary, though not exclusive, objective of a Northeast Asia Peace and Security Mechanism (NAPSM) should be the integration of North Korea into the broader regional and global economies. Such an opening is a prerequisite to the country’s economic renewal and resolution of its chronic humanitarian problems. Deepened economic interdependence would also embed North Korea in relations that could reduce the likelihood of disruptive behavior. Yet in addition to a resolution of the nuclear question, the attainment of these objectives depends crucially on the nature of the economic ties that develop. For engagement to be fruitful and politically sustainable, it must emphasize reform in North Korea and the private sector’s involvement in the country’s economic revival. The multilateral project should not be simply a vehicle for channeling aid to North Korea; such a mechanism could even have perverse effects on the reform process. 2007
Regional Security: Is "Architecture" All We Need? (80K) In October 2007 the Stanley Foundation, in collaboration with the RSIS, convened a conference to explore “Changing Security Cooperation and Competition: New Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia.” This conference, which addressed a range of traditional and nontraditional security issues shaping regional dynamics, is a major component of an ongoing, multiyear Stanley Foundation project on “New Power Dynamics in Southeast Asia: Issues for US Policy” that examines the impact of changing power relations in the Asia-Pacific region on Southeast Asian politics, security, and economics, and the implication of these trends for US policy. As part of the conference Richard Smith, former Australian Ambassador to Indonesia and China and former Secretary of the Department of Defence, was asked to deliver a luncheon talk on “Regional Security: Is 'Architecture' All We Need?” The text of Smith’s speech is reproduced in this brief.
An Alternative Look at the Forces Driving East Asian Community Building (102K) Shaun Breslin explores, in an East Asian context, why some countries join regional organizations and others don’t. Analyzing different Asian region-building initiatives, he argues that there is a lack of consensus over which countries are part of the East Asian region and which are not—in addition to the role of China as a driver in the debate between narrow and wider visions of East Asia. Breslin concludes that promotion of the wider vision of region in the East Asia Summit represents a deliberate attempt to create an "oversupply of region" and to neutralize Chinese power. Like APEC before it, he argues, the EAS is an "anti-region" supplied in order to prevent the emergence of a truly coherent regional community, and that so long as the "supply of this region is not in equilibrium with the demand for region" developing a form of region that "works" and evolves into functioning institutions will be problematic.
East Asia Community-Building: Time for the United States to Get on Board (86K) US views toward ongoing efforts to develop a future institutional architecture for Asia are still evolving and will be determined, in the final analysis, by the outcome of several simultaneous debates ongoing both in the United States and in East Asia. One is the debate between Asia-Pacific versus East Asia regionalism and how (or if) the two can coexist. Another is the future role of Washington’s traditional alliance-oriented strategy in Asia and how this coincides or conflicts with East Asia multilateralism. The third is the debate over institutionalized versus ad hoc multilateralism that is currently playing itself out both globally and within Asia. In the author's discussion of many of the key questions surrounding this issue, he develops "at least a tentative outline of Washington's preferred future institutional architecture for East Asia."
Nontraditional Security and Multilateralism in Asia: Reshaping the Contours of Regional Security Architecture? (104K) Southeast Asia is confronted with both traditional and new security challenges emerging from a host of transnational threats. These newly emerging trends, referred to as nontraditional security (NTS) threats, are defined as challenges to the survival and well-being of peoples and states that arise primarily out of nonmilitary sources, such as climate change, cross-border environmental degradation and resource depletion, infectious diseases, natural disasters, irregular migration, food shortages, people smuggling, drug trafficking, and other forms of transnational crime. The gravity of the problem can be seen in the way these transnational threats are now increasingly discussed not only in academic circles but also among senior policymakers in East Asia. It is therefore timely to examine how Asia—particularly the East Asian region—is addressing the emerging security challenges through its various regional institutions, mechanisms, and relevant security arrangements. How exactly are NTS threats (re)shaping the institutional architecture in East Asia? 2006
Economic Perspectives on Future Directions for Engagement With the DPRK in a Post-Test World (290K) From an economic perspective, this Policy Analysis Brief explores the consequences of North Korea's recent missile and nuclear tests and the UN actions in response. It also examines the options for the major stakeholders involved.
China's Energy Security and Its Grand Strategy (171K) China considers energy security critical to sustainable growth. Xuecheng Liu discusses China's strategies of conservation, efficiency, and a shift toward alternative fuels, and examines the implications on international relations and security. 2005
A Realist Policy for Managing US-China Competition (136K) The United States and China are destined to be competitors. But can they manage this competition and avoid the costs of great power competitions of the past? This brief suggests that the United States can manage this relationship in a way that is beneficial to both. Rising Powers 2007
An Alternative Look at the Forces Driving East Asian Community Building (102K) Shaun Breslin explores, in an East Asian context, why some countries join regional organizations and others don’t. Analyzing different Asian region-building initiatives, he argues that there is a lack of consensus over which countries are part of the East Asian region and which are not—in addition to the role of China as a driver in the debate between narrow and wider visions of East Asia. Breslin concludes that promotion of the wider vision of region in the East Asia Summit represents a deliberate attempt to create an "oversupply of region" and to neutralize Chinese power. Like APEC before it, he argues, the EAS is an "anti-region" supplied in order to prevent the emergence of a truly coherent regional community, and that so long as the "supply of this region is not in equilibrium with the demand for region" developing a form of region that "works" and evolves into functioning institutions will be problematic. 2006
America's Uncomfortable Relationship With Nationalism (128K) Is there such a thing as American nationalism or is it simply "patriotism"? Why do Americans view "nationalism" in such a negative light? Graham Fuller analyzes Americans' problem with nationalism, and why it is such a dangerous topic to ignore. 2005
A Realist Policy for Managing US-China Competition (136K) The United States and China are destined to be competitors. But can they manage this competition and avoid the costs of great power competitions of the past? This brief suggests that the United States can manage this relationship in a way that is beneficial to both. Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament 2008
Multilateralism as a Dual-Use Technique: Encouraging Nuclear Energy and Avoiding Proliferation (143K) Multilateralism is attractive in the nuclear energy business, above all because it helps to overcome the large costs and high technological barriers involved. This is true, as Urenco (a consortium of the British, German, and Dutch governments) and Eurodif (European Gaseous Diffusion Uranium Enrichment Consortium) show, even for wealthy advanced countries. For smaller or less advanced countries, it may be crucial; it can be their only realistic way to play an active role in a prestigious industry with evolving technology and potentially good profits. For all countries, it offers a gateway to security of fuel supply without political strings. In addition, by obviating the need for nationally owned-and-operated facilities, multilateralism makes an important contribution to nonproliferation. The model multilateral arrangement proposed in this brief is broadly applicable to any part, or any combination of parts, of the fuel cycle. The essential element is a commercial consortium composed of governments whose international board of directors will determine policy and deal with political issues while day-to-day operations will be run by a management company also internationally manned. Capital would be contributed in relation to shareholding, and profits distributed similarly. Equipment would mostly be leased rather than owned. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) would have special inspection rights and procedures, and protection against cheating by any participating country, including the host country, would be further enhanced by the presence of at least three nationalities in every working shift. Other important elements of the model emerge from the recommendations listed in the brief. 2007
Overcoming Nuclear Dangers (115K) Concerns about nuclear weapons have focused primarily on the spread of the bomb—to North Korea, Pakistan, India, and perhaps Iran—and on the terrifying prospect that Al Qaeda might acquire such weapons. Nuclear dangers, however, are not only "out there," they also exist in the policies of the United States and Russia, which continue to maintain thousands of nuclear weapons on hair-trigger alert. Russia has abandoned its "no-first-use" policy and is replacing its aging arsenal, while the United States has called for the possible first use of nuclear weapons against nonnuclear actors. This paper probes the sources of instability that are driving proliferation and continued reliance on nuclear weapons by major world powers. It reviews the recent use of diplomacy to resolve proliferation disputes and explores the link between regional and global disarmament. It traces the evolving political legitimacy and technical feasibility of nuclear weapons abolition, and concludes with suggestions to realize a future free of nuclear weapons. |
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