Mass Atrocities and Armed Conflict: Links, Distinctions, and Implications for the Responsibility to Prevent
Alex J. Bellamy
Policy Analysis Brief
A distinct and practical agenda for atrocity prevention has proven difficult to articulate. Concrete policy development has been frustrated in part by the complex relationship between mass atrocities and armed conflict. A strong empirical correlation leads some to assume a direct causal link and conclude that reinforcing existing efforts to prevent armed conflict remains the most effective approach to genocide and mass atrocity prevention.
Yet, not all conflicts give rise to mass atrocities, and many atrocities occur in the absence of armed struggle. In cases such as Bosnia, Rwanda, and Sudan, international efforts to secure peace settlements distracted attention from, and ultimately enabled, ongoing and imminent atrocities.
In a new policy analysis brief from the Stanley Foundation, Alex Bellamy considers the dynamics of the relationship between conflict and atrocity prevention. He stresses that, while conflict prevention is central to preventing mass atrocities, effective atrocity prevention demands something more—tailored engagement targeting both peacetime atrocities and those committed within a context of armed conflict.
What is required, he argues, is an “atrocity prevention lens” to inform and, where appropriate, direct policy development and decision making across the full spectrum of prevention-related activities. With the focus this lens provides, governments and international organizations can implement effective operational approaches to address the complex challenges of atrocity prevention.
This statistical chart catalogues mass atrocity campaigns between 1945 and 2010, indicating whether they occurred in contexts of war or minor armed conflict. All included campaigns resulted in an excess of 5,000 civilian deaths and demonstrated evidence of deliberate civilian-targeting.
This chart cross-compares the policy instruments associated with systemic, structural, and direct prevention with existing prevention agendas articulated for conflict, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and genocide.
This chart relates elements of the common prevention agenda to the specific indicators of genocide risk identified by the United Nations Office of the Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide.
The Stanley Foundation seeks a program officer for its Policy Programming Department. The chosen candidate will work with foundation management and staff to conceptualize, design, and implement the foundation’s climate change programming in pursuit of our mission, vision, and organizational goals. Read the full position announcement.
In the newest issue of Courier, we see China through the eyes of Jan Fear, one of our Catherine Miller Explorer Awards winners. Two experts argue about the effectiveness of the G-20 as a multilateral venue, and we talk to Jennifer Welsh, the newly appointed UN special adviser on the Responsibility to Protect (R2P). Finally, author Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie answers questions about the connection between literature and war.
Our bimonthly newsletter highlights new policy analysis about preventing nuclear terrorism as well as stopping mass atrocities before they start. And we pay tribute to Ambassador Richard Williamson—a member of the Stanley Foundation’s Advisory Council since 2005—who passed away on December 8.
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This Now Showing event-in-a-box toolkit Before the Killing Begins: The Politics of Mass Violence considers how early preventive strategies by governments and the international community should build much-needed capacities within countries, and make it harder for leaders to resort to violence. It aims to encourage discussion of how future efforts might better protect populations under threat, giving new resolve to the promise of never again. Sign Up
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