Mass Atrocities and Armed Conflict: Links, Distinctions, and Implications for the Responsibility to Prevent
Alex J. Bellamy
Policy Analysis Brief
A distinct and practical agenda for atrocity prevention has proven difficult to articulate. Concrete policy development has been frustrated in part by the complex relationship between mass atrocities and armed conflict. A strong empirical correlation leads some to assume a direct causal link and conclude that reinforcing existing efforts to prevent armed conflict remains the most effective approach to genocide and mass atrocity prevention.
Yet, not all conflicts give rise to mass atrocities, and many atrocities occur in the absence of armed struggle. In cases such as Bosnia, Rwanda, and Sudan, international efforts to secure peace settlements distracted attention from, and ultimately enabled, ongoing and imminent atrocities.
In a new policy analysis brief from the Stanley Foundation, Alex Bellamy considers the dynamics of the relationship between conflict and atrocity prevention. He stresses that, while conflict prevention is central to preventing mass atrocities, effective atrocity prevention demands something more—tailored engagement targeting both peacetime atrocities and those committed within a context of armed conflict.
What is required, he argues, is an “atrocity prevention lens” to inform and, where appropriate, direct policy development and decision making across the full spectrum of prevention-related activities. With the focus this lens provides, governments and international organizations can implement effective operational approaches to address the complex challenges of atrocity prevention.
This statistical chart catalogues mass atrocity campaigns between 1945 and 2010, indicating whether they occurred in contexts of war or minor armed conflict. All included campaigns resulted in an excess of 5,000 civilian deaths and demonstrated evidence of deliberate civilian-targeting.
This chart cross-compares the policy instruments associated with systemic, structural, and direct prevention with existing prevention agendas articulated for conflict, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and genocide.
This chart relates elements of the common prevention agenda to the specific indicators of genocide risk identified by the United Nations Office of the Special Adviser for the Prevention of Genocide.
|Reporting a Radiation Emergency
Journalists would play an indispensable role keeping the public informed in an emergency resulting in the release of radiation, either accidental or deliberate. But what do they need to do their job effectively? The following recommendations to authorities who would manage such an emergency were drafted by participants in the 2016 Rotterdam Nuclear Security Workshop for International Journalists.
The latest issue of Courier features articles on the state of securing nuclear material as the final nuclear security summit approaches in early April. It also includes a special reprint of an article from the Center for Public Intregrity, "The Stalking Threat of Nuclear Terrorism." Alex Bellamy, an expert on R2P, discusses the progress made in "Acting on the Responsibility to Protect," and three students from a global scholars conference comment about climate change. Lastly, a brief look at the foundation's Iowa Student Global Leadership conference. The full Spring 2016 issue. PDF (2.0 MB) Subscribe for FREE.
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|PARIS & BEYOND: COP21
Launching Global Climate Actions
The world recently looked to Paris for the most important global climate change negotiations for achieving a safer climate world: the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). As a helpful reference we have compiled this summary of the major work of the Stanley Foundation and its collaborators in an active global role during the past year preparing for this historic event…and the important continuing work ahead. More.
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|Nuclear Security Video
The Stanley Foundation produced a 13-minute video looking at what needs to be done to stop terrorist groups from acquiring enough fissile material to make a bomb. The foundation talked with over a dozen diverse and distinguished experts from the Nuclear Security Governance Experts Group and the Fissile Materials Working Group to see how today's patchwork of voluntary arrangements can be forged into a long-lasting system. Watch the video.
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